So, right off the bat, most of the polling that's been going on turns out to be pretty far off. The Orange Tsunami of Orangeness doesn't translate into more than a handful of extra seats outside of Quebec. In English speaking Canada, the people who said they liked the NDP can't be arsed to actually go and vote for them, and those numbers turn out to be softer than melting brie.
The Conservatives get 155 seats, plus or minus 5, and either get a slim majority or a strong enough minority to govern that way anyway. They lose some seats in Quebec but pick up a few in BC and the Atlantic provinces, and finally crack Fortress Toronto. The extra seats to get them over the edge are mostly in Ontario, who never really bought into that NDP bullshit in the first place.
The NDP pick up 20-ish new seats in Quebec and a handful in Ontario and BC but end up about 10 seats behind the Liberals. The Liberals cling to Official Opposition status by the skin of their teeth and immediately forget and discount any talk of uniting the left. Layton and Ignatieff are gone within 6 months and neither party is particularly effective, the Liberals because they're busy eating their own and the NDP because they just elected 20 nobodies in Quebec who have no clue what they're doing there.
The BQ gets dropped to about 30 seats. Duceppe retires to take his place among the honoured ancestors of his party. Whoever replaces him is going to remember fondly when they had as many as 30 MPs.
The Greens win nothing, and next time around we can all ignore them, even more than we did this time around, which was a lot but not quite enough.
Everybody who hates Harper and schemes his downfall gets to enjoy even more frustration and suffering, because it builds character.
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